Ellume Scheduling & Forecasting

Forecasting and scheduling, from the grid to the crew

Probabilistic, physics-first generation forecasts you can bid on — day-ahead, intraday and multi-day. One forecast that drives your SLDC/RLDC schedule and your O&M plan.

Powered by the Ellume Meridian™ forecasting model

The Forecasting Advantage

A forecast that survives contact with the settlement mechanism

Generic forecasts predict weather. Ellume forecasts what you can bid.

Most forecasts optimise for statistical accuracy against the weather. Meridian optimises for the number you actually commit — the bid the settlement mechanism grades you on — so accuracy turns into revenue, not just a lower error metric.

Beat the Deviation Band

Risk-aware bids are tuned to the economics of over- vs under-delivery — not the raw average — to minimise DSM deviation penalties and protect your schedule.

One Forecast, Grid to Crew

The same block-level forecast that feeds your SLDC/RLDC schedule drives maintenance and crew planning downstream. No second model, no reconciliation.

Bankable P10–P90

Every block ships with a calibrated confidence band. Commit with certainty, hedge with data, and hand lenders investor-grade numbers.

The Meridian Model

Physics you can trust, sharpened by AI, committed with discipline

Ellume Meridian is not a black box. It reasons in three stages — a physics baseline, a learned correction, and a risk-aware commitment — so every number is traceable to a driver you can explain.

01Physics

Grounded in physics

Meridian starts from a first-principles model of your plant and the forecast weather — a clean baseline of what an ideal plant should make, before any statistics.

02Learns

Learns your plant

It learns how your site actually behaves against that baseline — by season, weather and time of day — and sharpens the forecast, including the tricky dawn and dusk hours.

03Commits

Commits with discipline

The number it commits is not the raw average. Meridian weighs uncertainty and the cost of over- versus under-delivery to decide what you should actually bid.

Explainable

Every block exposes its drivers — GHI, plane-of-array, cell temperature, soiling and weather factors — so your desk can explain why the number moved, not just that it did.

Resolution

A day, in 96 fifteen-minute blocks

The committed bid rides inside a calibrated P10–P90 band, anchored to a physics baseline. When the models disagree, the band widens and the bid pulls toward safety.

P10–P90 band P50 committed Physics baseline
00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00
The Forecast Horizon

Day-ahead, intraday, and multi-day

15-minute resolution

Day-ahead

The full next-day forecast in 15-minute blocks — the numbers you commit to the grid tonight.

Live re-forecast

Intraday

As the day unfolds, Meridian revises the hours ahead from live generation — and flags the moment a block moves enough to matter.

Multi-day range

Range

A multi-day outlook — daily energy, peak and shape — for planning, maintenance and trading.

One Forecast, End to End

From the grid to the crew

Grid-side scheduling

Schedule the grid

Day-ahead and intraday schedules sized to the deviation settlement mechanism. Submit QCA-ready 15-minute blocks to your SLDC/RLDC and keep availability scores clean.

  • DSM deviation-band optimisation
  • QCA-ready block schedules
  • Intraday revisions on live actuals
Downstream O&M

Schedule the crew

The same forecast drives operations — plan maintenance around low-generation windows, sequence truck-rolls, and time panel cleaning to real economic loss, not the calendar.

  • Maintenance in low-yield windows
  • Cleaning scheduled by economic impact
  • One source of truth, no reconciliation

96

15-min blocks / day

Multi-day

forecast horizon

P10–P90

confidence band

Intraday

live re-forecasts

99.9%

platform uptime

Forecast the next block, and the days ahead

See Ellume Meridian run against your own plant data and watch the deviation band tighten.