Forecasting and scheduling, from the grid to the crew
Probabilistic, physics-first generation forecasts you can bid on — day-ahead, intraday and multi-day. One forecast that drives your SLDC/RLDC schedule and your O&M plan.
Powered by the Ellume Meridian™ forecasting model
A forecast that survives contact with the settlement mechanism
Generic forecasts predict weather. Ellume forecasts what you can bid.
Most forecasts optimise for statistical accuracy against the weather. Meridian optimises for the number you actually commit — the bid the settlement mechanism grades you on — so accuracy turns into revenue, not just a lower error metric.
Beat the Deviation Band
Risk-aware bids are tuned to the economics of over- vs under-delivery — not the raw average — to minimise DSM deviation penalties and protect your schedule.
One Forecast, Grid to Crew
The same block-level forecast that feeds your SLDC/RLDC schedule drives maintenance and crew planning downstream. No second model, no reconciliation.
Bankable P10–P90
Every block ships with a calibrated confidence band. Commit with certainty, hedge with data, and hand lenders investor-grade numbers.
Physics you can trust, sharpened by AI, committed with discipline
Ellume Meridian is not a black box. It reasons in three stages — a physics baseline, a learned correction, and a risk-aware commitment — so every number is traceable to a driver you can explain.
Grounded in physics
Meridian starts from a first-principles model of your plant and the forecast weather — a clean baseline of what an ideal plant should make, before any statistics.
Learns your plant
It learns how your site actually behaves against that baseline — by season, weather and time of day — and sharpens the forecast, including the tricky dawn and dusk hours.
Commits with discipline
The number it commits is not the raw average. Meridian weighs uncertainty and the cost of over- versus under-delivery to decide what you should actually bid.
Every block exposes its drivers — GHI, plane-of-array, cell temperature, soiling and weather factors — so your desk can explain why the number moved, not just that it did.
A day, in 96 fifteen-minute blocks
The committed bid rides inside a calibrated P10–P90 band, anchored to a physics baseline. When the models disagree, the band widens and the bid pulls toward safety.
Day-ahead, intraday, and multi-day
Day-ahead
The full next-day forecast in 15-minute blocks — the numbers you commit to the grid tonight.
Intraday
As the day unfolds, Meridian revises the hours ahead from live generation — and flags the moment a block moves enough to matter.
Range
A multi-day outlook — daily energy, peak and shape — for planning, maintenance and trading.
From the grid to the crew
Schedule the grid
Day-ahead and intraday schedules sized to the deviation settlement mechanism. Submit QCA-ready 15-minute blocks to your SLDC/RLDC and keep availability scores clean.
- ✓DSM deviation-band optimisation
- ✓QCA-ready block schedules
- ✓Intraday revisions on live actuals
Schedule the crew
The same forecast drives operations — plan maintenance around low-generation windows, sequence truck-rolls, and time panel cleaning to real economic loss, not the calendar.
- ✓Maintenance in low-yield windows
- ✓Cleaning scheduled by economic impact
- ✓One source of truth, no reconciliation
96
15-min blocks / day
Multi-day
forecast horizon
P10–P90
confidence band
Intraday
live re-forecasts
99.9%
platform uptime
Forecast the next block, and the days ahead
See Ellume Meridian run against your own plant data and watch the deviation band tighten.